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Estimating the Green Line

  This is part 3 in a series about negative splitting.  See Part 1 on the high level idea and Part 2 on the green line. Today we’ll explore my process of estimating my green line for a race, and deciding on the actual paces and splits to aim for during a race. Photo credit Melissa Ruse Process First, I’ll outline the process I use.  Note that this process is iterative - I start following it in order but will jump back to previous steps as I have more time to digest the paces, and my fitness evolves with training. As you’ll see, this is part science and part art - it relies on a lot of data, but also knowledge of my own abilities and potential.  Honesty is critical here - I can have as much wishful thinking as I’d like but I will pay for over-aggressive estimations on race day. Here are the high level steps. Set a Baseline - I begin by getting a baseline of what I think I’m capable of at a race.  This is the finish time of executing a perfect green line race at maximal ability .  I

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